Political scenario post UP by elections.

The by elections in UP recently held have set in motion an interesting trend. The allies of BJP have found sudden reasons to be dissatisfied with the main partner. Perhaps they were enduring with some degree of uneasiness hitherto and waiting for some honorable exit point. The result of UP by pools came in handy for them to do what they were waiting for. For Chandrababu Naidu it is a God sent opportunity. With elections round the corner in some time in the future, he was feeling uncomfortable with BJP as there is a large chunk of Muslim vote base in his state. By continuing with BJP he would have been perceived as one who is "Running with the hare and hunting with the Hounds". This contradiction he always wanted to clear himself off much before the state assembly elections.

Nitish kumar in Bihar has started to make some noise which is discomforting to BJP. When he deserted Lallo in Mahaghatbandhan arrangement on a flimsy reason of corruption and joined BJP, he thought that BJP was a rising star and decided to sail with it. When series of setbacks started to haunt BJP in the by pools, he is realizing that BJP is now a sinking ship and some how wanted to desert that sinking ship. He has started making some noise probably an indication of the next step he may take. His whatever reasoning will warm nobody's hearts. He has already lost the credibility he once enjoyed before joining BJP. The vitriolic Shivsena as usual is blowing hot and cold and continuously criticizing BJP. LokJanShakti leader Ram Vilas Pawan is bold enough to sermonise BJP to have change in perception towards dalits. KCR has reached out to Mamata Banerjee and already dreaming of a third front.

Congress not able to do anything is rubbing hands in glee at the developments. Its position is so pathetic that after losing deposits in the two by pools, it is celebrating the victory of SP as its own.

All these developments on the horizon only suggest that the opposition parties are in great hurry to encash the anti Modi sentiment. In the process they have forgotten that Modi and Shah can bounce back with renewed vigour, learning from the mistakes and insulating the party from such mistakes in 2019. Though, no doubt, that Modi's aura of invincibility has suffered to an extent, he is only down but definitely not out. Opposition has to handle/face him with lot of foresight, careful planning and precise execution which the opposition is not familiar with or known for. Moreover the basics/fundamentals of alliance if at all they are going to stitch are to be drawn with great circumspection, caution, accommodation, and maturity. The preparation of agree all program is the toughest part and first right step in this direction. Congress even if it has bigger number of seats than other opposition parties in 2019, it will be reduced to a level of regional party as for as bargaining power is concerned. It will be regional parties that may hold the sway. Opposition has equally daunting task or even more difficult task than BJP in 2019.

K N Krishnan.      94496 12446

By elections in UP & Bihar: Whether BJP is ambushed?

The results of by pools in UP and Bihar have thrown up interesting food for thought and enough material for media to discuss. There is some ray of hope for non BJP parties where as there is every reason for BJP to worry about. BJP ceded two of its strong bastions, Gorakhpur and Phulpur Parliamentary constituencies to SP. Gorakhpur was the bastion of the incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath who held this constituency for five consecutive terms. The loss of this constituency is a clear loss of face for the Chief Minister. The situation in Phulpur is also no different. It was held by the incumbent Deputy Chief Minister. No body is talking of Congress's loss of deposits in both the places probably because it is not even worthy of mention. It is effaced from UP and it was only expected and therefore no excitement about this. Its position is so pathetic that it feels the victory of SP as if its own. The degeneration of the grand old party is so abysmal.

The position in Bihar too was not any comforting for BJP. The RJD won the seat Araria. This is the first Parliamentary election held after Nitish Kumar broke away from the grand alliance with Lallu's RJD and joined BJP. Also it is the first election after Lallu Prasad Yadav was sent to jail in the fodder scam. Nithish kumar too, like Yogi Adityanath suffered a severe loss of face in Bihar. Simultaneously it is thumbs up for Lallu in the jail. His charisma and mass appeal has not diminished and in fact it has improved. What does all these indicate for BJP?

One of the leaders of BJP while reacting to the results beautifully phrased it as "we were ambushed by SP and BSP coming together". It was unexpected and we were not prepared for this surprise. He is true and candid. But the outcome of the election has much more to offer beyond the SP and BSP alliance. The margin with which BJP has won the two Loksabha seats in 2014 was huge- more than 3 lakhs. This is something that should send BJP the sleepless nights than the actual defeat. There is a steep erosion in its vote share and a high percentage voter shift. Out of the 15 Parliamentary by polls held across various states since 2014, BJP could win only 2 seats. This should worry the BJP the most. The aura of invincibility built around Modi is slowly giving way and the master strategist Amit Shah can also be outsmarted. These are the two most important takeaways from the results.

More over, if the coming together of SP and BSP graduates into a well meaning alliance in UP for 2019, BJP will have tough time safeguarding the numbers it has achieved in 2014. BJP  presently wishing it away as a one off affair. But anything is possible in politics. Politics is an art of the possible. One may call it opportunistic or whatever. After all, all political parties are opportunistic. Best example is Kashmir. More so the increasing pan India spread of BJP may bring all the worried non BJP opposition parties together. Survival instinct will be a strong bond than any ideology or philosophy.

Modi has to invent some new slogans for 2019 as all the existing stuff in his armoury appears to be a spent force. His rhetoric like Gujarat model, Development (sab ka sath sab ka vikas), Achhe din , Job creation, Black money, Corruption etc., may not carry the day for him in 2019. Hoping to win 2019 with just rhetoric and sloganeering without delivery of promises made will be of very tall order and wishful. Demonetiization, GST, Digitisation, Aadhar etc., alone may not be sufficient to bring him back to his second term. Something (programmes) that really touches the lives of the common man is the best immunity from defeat.

K N Krishnan.

What is ailing the Indian banking system?

The Indian Banks and for that matter the entire banking system is continuously in the news for all the wrong reasons. Banks have become so susceptible and vulnerable to the frauds that frauds have become a commonplace. The alarming regularity and the monumental amount involved in the act is the cause for great concern. What is even more disturbing is the fact that defrauding a Bank no more requires any extraordinary adroitness. It is being perpetrated as if it is such a normal thing. This raises questions about the security of the transactions done in the banking system and the laxity in following the laid down systems and procedures. Well, now comes the crucial question of finding the culprits (or scapegoats, if I may say so). Here two things are very important for consideration. Firstly, the length of the period for which this fraudulent transactions are performed and secondly the astronomical amount involved in it. These two factors are very vital in arriving at the conclusions and nailing the culprits. No single individual can imagine the scale of the fraud that has happened let alone committing it. There is something more than that meets the eye. The entire narrative, discussion and the focus is mainly on how it has happened. Only the small fish so far has been caught. The sharks are still at large and are having a free run in the safe heavens overseas without having any compunction or remorse. The larger question of bringing the fraudsters to book is not given the urgency and the importance it deserves. This is something unusual and bizarre and gives rise to questions of honesty of intentions on the part of the establishment.

The other serious malady afflicting the banking is the poor performance of the economy. Banking performance is always inexorably linked to the economic growth. When the economy is not in good health, naturally banking cannot be robust. This point is invariably missed out by the self declared judges and the commentators in the media. The performance of banking cannot be measured in isolation and various contributory factors have to be factored in for its objective evaluation.

The other most important factor that is contributing to PSBs NPA kitty most liberally is their vast exposure to the infrastructure, power and telecom sectors where there is a long gestation period. Any changes in the laws, changes in the economic environment during this gestation period will throw out of gear all the assumptions on which the loan proposal is processed and will affect the performance of these sectors thus impacting the banks which has taken exposure. The mind-boggling figures of NPA are a serious threat to the very existence of many banks themselves. It is only the onerous responsibility of the PSBs to engage in the nation building activities /schemes /programs of the government where the scope for profit making is either absent or abysmally low. And the private sector and foreign banks doesn't have this exposure/risk and to that extent their loan books are safe and precisely for this reason their performance cannot be and should not be compared with that of PSBs. It is simply unjust and atrocious to do that.

As if this is not enough, the public nature of the banking has its concomitant baggage. PSBs are misused and abused for all things that are simply not banking. They are often used as government offices to discharge the tasks that fall strictly in the domain of government departments.

Adding salt to wound is the new malaise of cross selling which has become contagious in the Public sector banks. There seems to be no stoppage of this in the near future despite the occasional noise made by the TUs. Their voice is just ignored and not taken cognizance of. Their meek, weak and inaudible noise has remained a cry in the wilderness. And the show is going on unnerved. This cross selling or misselling whatever one calls has derailed banking and banking has lost its direction.

HAPPY WOMEN'S DAY

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