Political scenario post UP by elections.

The by elections in UP recently held have set in motion an interesting trend. The allies of BJP have found sudden reasons to be dissatisfied with the main partner. Perhaps they were enduring with some degree of uneasiness hitherto and waiting for some honorable exit point. The result of UP by pools came in handy for them to do what they were waiting for. For Chandrababu Naidu it is a God sent opportunity. With elections round the corner in some time in the future, he was feeling uncomfortable with BJP as there is a large chunk of Muslim vote base in his state. By continuing with BJP he would have been perceived as one who is "Running with the hare and hunting with the Hounds". This contradiction he always wanted to clear himself off much before the state assembly elections.

Nitish kumar in Bihar has started to make some noise which is discomforting to BJP. When he deserted Lallo in Mahaghatbandhan arrangement on a flimsy reason of corruption and joined BJP, he thought that BJP was a rising star and decided to sail with it. When series of setbacks started to haunt BJP in the by pools, he is realizing that BJP is now a sinking ship and some how wanted to desert that sinking ship. He has started making some noise probably an indication of the next step he may take. His whatever reasoning will warm nobody's hearts. He has already lost the credibility he once enjoyed before joining BJP. The vitriolic Shivsena as usual is blowing hot and cold and continuously criticizing BJP. LokJanShakti leader Ram Vilas Pawan is bold enough to sermonise BJP to have change in perception towards dalits. KCR has reached out to Mamata Banerjee and already dreaming of a third front.

Congress not able to do anything is rubbing hands in glee at the developments. Its position is so pathetic that after losing deposits in the two by pools, it is celebrating the victory of SP as its own.

All these developments on the horizon only suggest that the opposition parties are in great hurry to encash the anti Modi sentiment. In the process they have forgotten that Modi and Shah can bounce back with renewed vigour, learning from the mistakes and insulating the party from such mistakes in 2019. Though, no doubt, that Modi's aura of invincibility has suffered to an extent, he is only down but definitely not out. Opposition has to handle/face him with lot of foresight, careful planning and precise execution which the opposition is not familiar with or known for. Moreover the basics/fundamentals of alliance if at all they are going to stitch are to be drawn with great circumspection, caution, accommodation, and maturity. The preparation of agree all program is the toughest part and first right step in this direction. Congress even if it has bigger number of seats than other opposition parties in 2019, it will be reduced to a level of regional party as for as bargaining power is concerned. It will be regional parties that may hold the sway. Opposition has equally daunting task or even more difficult task than BJP in 2019.

K N Krishnan.      94496 12446