The results of by pools in UP and Bihar have thrown up interesting food for thought and enough material for media to discuss. There is some ray of hope for non BJP parties where as there is every reason for BJP to worry about. BJP ceded two of its strong bastions, Gorakhpur and Phulpur Parliamentary constituencies to SP. Gorakhpur was the bastion of the incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath who held this constituency for five consecutive terms. The loss of this constituency is a clear loss of face for the Chief Minister. The situation in Phulpur is also no different. It was held by the incumbent Deputy Chief Minister. No body is talking of Congress's loss of deposits in both the places probably because it is not even worthy of mention. It is effaced from UP and it was only expected and therefore no excitement about this. Its position is so pathetic that it feels the victory of SP as if its own. The degeneration of the grand old party is so abysmal.
The position in Bihar too was not any comforting for BJP. The RJD won the seat Araria. This is the first Parliamentary election held after Nitish Kumar broke away from the grand alliance with Lallu's RJD and joined BJP. Also it is the first election after Lallu Prasad Yadav was sent to jail in the fodder scam. Nithish kumar too, like Yogi Adityanath suffered a severe loss of face in Bihar. Simultaneously it is thumbs up for Lallu in the jail. His charisma and mass appeal has not diminished and in fact it has improved. What does all these indicate for BJP?
One of the leaders of BJP while reacting to the results beautifully phrased it as "we were ambushed by SP and BSP coming together". It was unexpected and we were not prepared for this surprise. He is true and candid. But the outcome of the election has much more to offer beyond the SP and BSP alliance. The margin with which BJP has won the two Loksabha seats in 2014 was huge- more than 3 lakhs. This is something that should send BJP the sleepless nights than the actual defeat. There is a steep erosion in its vote share and a high percentage voter shift. Out of the 15 Parliamentary by polls held across various states since 2014, BJP could win only 2 seats. This should worry the BJP the most. The aura of invincibility built around Modi is slowly giving way and the master strategist Amit Shah can also be outsmarted. These are the two most important takeaways from the results.
More over, if the coming together of SP and BSP graduates into a well meaning alliance in UP for 2019, BJP will have tough time safeguarding the numbers it has achieved in 2014. BJP presently wishing it away as a one off affair. But anything is possible in politics. Politics is an art of the possible. One may call it opportunistic or whatever. After all, all political parties are opportunistic. Best example is Kashmir. More so the increasing pan India spread of BJP may bring all the worried non BJP opposition parties together. Survival instinct will be a strong bond than any ideology or philosophy.
Modi has to invent some new slogans for 2019 as all the existing stuff in his armoury appears to be a spent force. His rhetoric like Gujarat model, Development (sab ka sath sab ka vikas), Achhe din , Job creation, Black money, Corruption etc., may not carry the day for him in 2019. Hoping to win 2019 with just rhetoric and sloganeering without delivery of promises made will be of very tall order and wishful. Demonetiization, GST, Digitisation, Aadhar etc., alone may not be sufficient to bring him back to his second term. Something (programmes) that really touches the lives of the common man is the best immunity from defeat.
K N Krishnan.
That is the real beauty of Indian democracy .. No one can claim he has mastered the art of winning the voters all the time ...
ReplyDeleteThe mirage of Aache Din is well realised by now.Back to Regionalism again perhaps work in Hindi Belt.
ReplyDeletePolitical parties thinking that the voters are innocent but when time comes voters teaching lessons every to every party
ReplyDeleteExcellent write up again. Crisp yet comprehensive.
ReplyDeleteBJP has to pull up its socks. No doubt. But all may not have been lost yet.
Araria in Bihar was anyhow an RJD stronghold, with lot of pro-Pakistan minority votes, as evident from the open sloganeering that happened immediately after the victory.
Phulpur was never a BJP stronghold again. BJP won it for the first time in 2014, due to Modi wave. Gorakhpur is a definite setback. In both places in UP, it was overconfidence. BJP supporters didn't seem to have turned up enough as the stakes for BJP were not high (very low voter turnout effectively means that). And BJP didn't expect transfer of votes from BSP to SP on this scale either, particularly since the deal happened at the last minute. But that can happen from BSP to SP, not the other way round. Not to the same extent. And getting into a pucca arrangement for 2019 is a question mark, but BJP must be prepared for it, as the very survival of these parties is at stake, which may force them to join hands, as you said.
BJP needs to 1. deliver on the 150% Price for Farm Produce and NaMo Care 2. highlight the achievements already made 3. effectively counter false propaganda 4. deliver a bit on Hindutva issues to galvanize its core constituency 5. deal with its Allies respectfully and 6. take a few populist measures, instead of thinking of only long term national interest.
Opposition Unity too is not easy. Just see how KCR is now trying to bring the Opposition together, just because he can't see CBNaidu taking the lead.
All said & done, BJP has a tough job ahead. But, even if any Grand Opposition Alliance happens and succeeds, it may meet the same fate as Janata Party, as it will this time consist of bhadra rivals like SP-BSP, TDP-TRS etc.
Interesting times ahead.
My take - BJP (alone) will get about 225 seats. Let's see.
I concur with your views. I agree the reverse transfer of votes of SP to BSP may not happen in the same degree if there is an alliance between the two.
ReplyDeleteOne more difficulty for the grand alliance to fructify is the absence of a tall leader behind whom all can rally around. And absence of common minimum programe. Anti Modi sentiment alone cannot take them where they want to reach. In fact it may boomerang too.
Common Minimum Programme can be worked out. Agreeing on a Leader to be the PM candidate may be difficult. A single party can say we will elect/select the leader later. A bunch of parties can't say that. BJP will then harp on that, that they don't even have a PM candidate.
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